In about forty-five minutes I will walk out my door. Ten minutes after that, I will attend my local Republican Party Caucus in the gym of my old high school. My neighborhood, it’s fair to say, is democratic. I think there is a Romney supporter up the street, but they posted no yard sign this season as they did in 2008.
To be honest I do not know what to expect there (in fact the idea that a gym full of republicans will be occupying my alternative high school, a Blue Ribbon recipient when I was there, is mind-blowing). My guess is that Romney will do well, but that Santorum has a strong chance to beat him. I think Paul will finish second—but first and third will be a Romney / Santorum shake-up. I am a little cautious about Paul’s second place here. For the other four, I think Perry comes in next to Gingrich, with Gingrich having the edge for fourth or fifth place. I think Bachmann grabs sixth, there’s just not enough social conservatives with Santorum making a surge. Huntsman…who’s that? Again, that’s my local caucus.
Statewide I think Paul and Romney hack the first two spots out. If Paul takes first, I will be stunned—as I have said before in this blog, the party won’t have him, I think a first place victory will shock the establishment, and there is no doubt in my mind should he do well in New Hampshire there will be a third party run barring some incredible nomination fight in the party itself (media would love that too). I think Santorum will place a strong third, I cannot see Romney in third but wherever he ends up it will be a weak victory.
The question is really who backs who, so my prognostication could change. If Romney is backed by fair-weather Republicans, Paul is the true threat. I do not think the social conservatives are behind Romney, so Santorum’s rise is a threat to Paul’s peripheral supporters but not his core believers. This is why first, second, and third should be close all around. If Romney goes into third, he’s in trouble. If Paul takes third, he’s also in trouble, he has to finish in first or second or it’s just another platform changer. Paul’s backing is the youth vote, intellectual independents, and disaffected democrats and some social conservatives. I think he will be strong in the western portion of the state, but more, I think in the four or five metro areas he’s also going to do well. The media love-affair has been all Romney in recent days, trying to pitch the expectation to his certain anemic showing. But the strongest coverage has favored Santorum who dodged scrutiny. The fact is Romney has been in place for 25% more or less since the pandering began, and he has not built on that. He has the most to lose. The hype in the last week is, well, weak for Romney. So Santorum is the wild card, should he get second, the establishment will be gleeful, should he get second, Paul is likely to have third.
More after the caucus.
